The pricing dispersion across these auctions tells a more nuanced story than headline figures suggest.
The Guatemala vs. Panama gap ($101.09/MWh vs. $20.05/MWh) is striking, but they represent very different products:
Guatemala’s PEG-5 procured firm, dispatchable capacity with guaranteed start dates in 2030–2033 under long-term PPAs.
Panama’s hydro/wind round delivered record-low prices for high-quality variable generation.
Notable: Solar + BESS still captured 47% of Guatemala’s awards at an all-in $101/MWh — a clear structural shift.
Risk-adjusted view right now:
Panama remains highly attractive due to regulatory predictability and strong results.